Archive for August 26th, 2010

Jay Cost replies to Reid Wilson – Will Money Save the Democrats?

Thursday, August 26th, 2010

Reid Wilson, our former colleague and now the editor-in-chief of the Hotline On Call, had an interesting column today explaining “why Democrats will keep the House.”

He offers four reasons.

(1) Democrats have so far raised more money.
(2) Money facilitates turnout.

(3) Money facilitates opposition research.

(4) Democratic voters will come home, as they did in PA-12.

Each of these points has some validity, but in each one Wilson is over-stating his case. Let’s take them in turn.

Reid Wilson – Why Democrats Will Keep The House

Thursday, August 26th, 2010

House Republicans are measuring the drapes in preparation for big gains in the lower chamber, convinced that Minority Leader John Boehner is going to become the next Speaker of the House. On a macro level, that wouldn’t be a bad guess — Democrats are saddled with bad polls and unpopular leaders, and the national mood wants a change from the status quo. But the Democratic apocalypse isn’t guaranteed just yet. In fact, senior Democratic strategists say they’re not only likely to keep the House, but they believe the GOP won’t come close to gaining the 39 seats they need to take over.