Tiahrt for Senate — Poll shows Moran in trouble

In case you missed it, below is an interesting analysis of the Kansas Senate Primary.

Also, if you have a chance, please show your support for Todd’s Senate campaign by VOTING ONLINE.  The online poll is at the bottom right of the page.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Poll Shows Moran in Trouble

Jerry Moran supporters sent out odd emails this week touting the results of a SurveyUSA poll signfiying they had a 7 point lead, 40-33.

While Moran does have a small, barely-statistically-meaningful lead, the folks behind the Tiahrt campaign must be pleased with what the poll shows beyond the top number.

First of all, the top number itself is not good for Moran at all. Despite what they describe as a big money advantage and having run in several uncontested races for Congress, and twice being mentioned as a candidate for Governor, Jerry Moran is only at 40%. That’s a nice number but let’s not forget Moran started with a big fundraising advantage simply because he had more money from those uncontested races. Yet, Tiahrt remains basically just barely behind. Nothing has changed in the past few months in the overall number. A 7 point lead at this point means little — just ask Sheila Frahm, who was up 25 points in May on Brownback in 1996.

Secondly, this is the devastating blow for Moran:

Moran’s lead in the western part of the state — previously 52 points — is down to 35 points. While still huge, Moran’s entire strategy seems based on a massive win in a district where his name ID is huge. While Tiahrt has a smaller 17 point lead in Wichita and Moran continues a 15 point lead in the KC area, if Moran continues to slide in the west as that region’s conservative voters become aware — and drift — to Tiahrt — Moran’s lead appears extremely shaky.

read the rest of the article

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