The US House Is Very Much In Play — Sean Trende, RCP

The consensus among the political class remains that the House not only isn’t in play, but that it is crazy talk to suggest that control could flip.

These pundits are absolutely wrong. While I think the most likely scenario right now is that the Republicans will pick up somewhere in the neighborhood of 35 seats, Democratic losses could easily go higher. In fact, I’d say the GOP currently has about a one-in-three chance of getting the 40 seats they need to take back the House, with a bias toward higher gains. Pundits have discussed the economy, health care, and last November’s elections ad nauseum, so I won’t rehash this. I think the real reasons that the House is in play are as follows:

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