2010 election predictions from Kaw and Border: In Kansas, we’ll see Tiahrt, Lightner, Huelskamp, and fewer liberal Republicans

Kaw and Border writes:

1. Todd Tiahrt will be the next United States Senator from Kansas. Jerry Moran made a significantly early blunder by cozying up to the Johnson County liberal establishment by joining with seven local mayors.  While he certainly should have not rejected their endorsement, coordinating seven of them suggested he agrees with them on policy and on politics.  (Democrat Shawnee Mayor Jeff Meyers was one of the 7)  Given that local government is the primary source for much of the heavy-handed government action and government growth in Kansas, this was troubling from a policy perspective as well.  While Moran has tried to make up for this with some endorsements from out-of-state Senators who he is buddies with, his early advantages in both name ID and money have earned him only 37% in a recent poll.  Todd Tiahrt, meanwhile, has been aggressively working the grassroots and is only 3 points down, and has plenty of money to win a Kansas primary.  Tiahrt wins, 53-47%.

2. Tim Huelskamp will crush his primary opposition in the 1st District. Tim Huelskamp was the leader from day one here, but in a 6 person field, one thought it might get close.  Instead, Huelskamp has dominated in every phase of the game, and with the list of endorsements he’s piling up, along with the impressive conservative record he has built over 13 years, and the impressive grassroots support he has, he will win easily.  He will at least crack 40% and may crack 50% in this crowded field.

3. Moderate Republicans will become irrelevant in Kansas.

Read the whole thing.

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