Mark Perry: Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level in Four Months


The Department of Labor just released its Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, reporting that the four-week moving average (which smoothes out the volatility) of initial unemployment claims fell this week to 615,750, the lowest level since February 7, more than four months ago (see chart above). From the April 4 peak of 658,750 claims, the four-week moving average has declined in 8 out of the last 10 weeks, and is now 43,000 claims below the peak. With every week of new data, it’s looking more and more certain that April 4 was the peak for jobless claims, and the labor market will continue to gradually improve as move forward.

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