Jay Cost on Specter’s likely primary battle against Joe Sestak: Specter has a real problem

RCP:

Toomey raised $4.5 million for his challenge in 2004. Sestak is going to have to do better. He surely will, already having about $3.3 million on hand as of April 1st.

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Suppose Sestak raises the cash. What’s his angle? I think Specter has provided him with a great valence issue – i.e. one that divides the electorate by 90-10 or even 99-1 rather than 50-50 or 60-40. That is: “Why shouldn’t Pennsylvania Democrats demand a real Democrat?”

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This is good news for Toomey. If Specter loses the primary, the race becomes an open seat, which improves his chances. If Specter wins, but Sestak puts up a spirited fight, the negativity of the final weeks should knock Specter down a peg. Plus, Specter would have had to spend a good deal of his cash.

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