Moran, Hodge’s name ID equal to Thornburgh in JoCo

Benjamin Hodge at RedCounty.com:

  • In the JCCC Trustee race, in which the top 4 candidates (out of 10) won, Peter Jouras came in fifth, and I came in sixth.  He didn’t beat me by much, but my guess is he spent at least $35,000 on the race (3 county-wide mailings and tons of signs).  Jouras spent far, far more than I did, and he was endorsed by most of the major liberal-socialist-big-government groups (NEA, faculty union, Mainstream Coalition; all but Mission Hills/Arizonian Steve Rose), but he and I fared about the same.  When I won the trustee race in April 2005, the turnout was 30%, which is closer to a representative sample of voters.  That year, the marriage amendment carried the county 60-40 and Overland Park Mayor Gerlach beat a well-financed Democrat 60-40, and those proportions probably wouldn’t deviate much if held during a higher-turnout election.
  • Moran-Tiahrt:  you’ll hear at times from supporters of one campaign or the other about how their candidate is better-known in Kansas’ Third Congressional District.  I haven’t seen any evidence to verify that statement.
  • Thornburgh:  I didn’t test Brownback’s name, because I had been told by a reliable source that his name ID was virtually 100% state-wide.  One could certainly argue that it’s not a good thing for Thornburgh that Tiahrt and Moran have competiting name recognition levels, when Johnson County voters have never seen the congressmen’s names on local ballots.
  • I am reassured by the general accuracy of my own poll after looking at another poll taken on April 17 by the well-respected firm SurveyUSAHT to Bagyants.com, which first made me aware of this poll that tested likely 2010 voters for the Republican primary (not all voters, therefore).  Part of the poll’s breakdown includes region: NE, SW, and Western; though, I don’t know exactly how they define these terms.

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